Part Two: 1997 - An open goal for Labour?

In 1997 Blair enjoyed an impressive 43.2% of the popular vote, Labour's highest vote share since 1966. Looking at the context in which Blair came to power in 1997, a closer political analysis shows that in many respects, Labour faced a much less formidable challenge in the 90's than it does today.

Labour's victory in 1997 came after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory rule, culminating in a widely discredited, highly unpopular and divided government under John Major. Neil Kinnock's attempts to move the party to the right had failed to deliver a Labour government in 1987 and 1992, but by 1997, Major was seen as a weak leader, he suffered a disloyal and divided party and cabinet and no longer had the unwavering support of the right-wing media.

It's also crucial to look at the overall electoral landscape in the 1990's. At that time, Labour did not face significant cross-cutting competition from third parties like the SNP, UKIP, Brexit Party or the Green Party. By 1992, Labour was the largest or second largest party in the vast majority of seats across the UK, competing almost always against the Conservatives. Most importantly, the LibDems were mainly facing off against the Tories, they did not pose a significant threat to Labour seats as much as they did by the 2000s. This can be most clearly seen in the fall of previously safe Tory seats to the LibDems in multiple by-elections between 1990 and 1997.

In 1992, no seats had changed hands between Labour and the LibDems, all the seats the LibDems gained or lost were with the Conservatives. In 1997, tactical voting from Labour voters allowed the LibDems to gain multiple seats from the Tories, and almost all their battleground seats were head-to-head contests with the Tories:

Source: James Crouch/Opinium

Blair's success in 1997 should also be seen in the context that he had promised to copy the Tories' tax and spending plans, which played a part in persuading many Tory voters to vote Labour. But there were some other very significant factors that proved highly favourable to Labour and highly damaging for the Tories in the 1990s:

• In Sept 1992, Black Wednesday had seriously damaged the Major government's reputation for economic competence
• Labour was consistently leading the opinion polls by the end of 1992 (by as much as 23 points) and increasing that lead from 1992 onwards
• The Liberal Democrats were making big gains at the expense of the Tories in local elections and by-elections
• There had been a series of scandals involving Conservative MPs, eagerly reported by the tabloid press, and divisions over Europe were generating bad headlines and leading to a perception that Major was weak
• When Blair became leader, his nearest rival, John Prescott, who was seen as being on the Left of the party, became a loyal and supportive deputy leader and helped to rally some on the left of the party behind Blair's agenda 
• Blair faced no serious challenge from within the Parliamentary Labour Party over his leadership and had received approval for abandoning policies like nationalisation in many parts of the media
• Blair had the support of Rupert Murdoch, whose newspaper, The Sun, had the biggest circulation of any paper, had previously delivered unwavering support for the Tories and was widely believed to have helped win the 1992 election for Major (Murdoch came to have a significant influence on government decisions, including the UK’s involvement in the Iraq War)
• 5 months before the election, Major had lost his parliamentary majority, which added to the sense of an administration in the process of collapse
• By 1997, the Conservatives had been in power for 18 years, meaning there was a general feeling that administration had run its course. People also voted Labour in the hope that the a new government would deliver real change.

Looking at Blair's challenge when he assumed the leadership in 1994, here is the vote share from the previous election:

Data Source:Wikipedia

In 1994, Blair inherited a party that was facing a negligible challenge from third parties like the SNP, while the LibDems were primarily inhibiting the Tory vote.The Conservative government was extremely unpopular and as predicted in the opinion polls since 1992, their vote collapsed in the election of 1997. Apart from copying the Tories' economic programme, Blair also emulated Conservative tough rhetoric on crime and had abandoned socialist policies. This almost certainly convinced some Tory voters to switch sides in this election, though the subsequent collapse in the core Labour vote in the parties' heartlands four years later showed the price of this.

Even though Blair had won a landslide majority of Labour MPs in 1997, in an extraordinary move he actually approached the LibDems to form a coalition, to reduce and dilute the influence of his own party over his government. Only a potential cabinet revolt stopped this plan.

In Part Three we look at how the electoral landscape changed during the Blair years.